Trump's (Dis)order Gamble

Trump is invading U.S. cities.

It's a disgraceful assault on American liberty; the predictable upshot of electing a tinpot authoritarian to the most powerful office in the world.

But because this is still (nominally) a democracy, we also have to consider how it will play out politically.

These moves are not popular. And I think that over the mid-term, they will backfire on Trump, because paradoxically they give the appearance of disorder.

To be clear, I think it's clear that the main motivator of the Trump invasion of our cities is not about short-term political calculus at all. It is a genuine, earnestly-felt commitment to sadistic authoritarianism that in particular views terrorizing blue city residents as its own reward. We shouldn't overinterpret this as a product of deep strategy.

That said, the political logic at work here is I think clear enough: it's a gamble that when voters see these images of the disordered city, they'll instinctively race back to the "law and order" party. Cities are dangerous (so dangerous we need the military to step in); Trump is keeping you safe.

But I don't think the gamble is going to pay off. When one sees men in army fatigues marching down city streets accosting residents (and the inevitable protests and resistance such conduct inspires), the thought that tends to follow is rarely "things are going great!" Deploying troops to American cities is the sort of thing one does in chaotic, all-is-near-lost situations. And so the more we have imagery coming out of an America where our communities are under military occupation, the more it entrenches a public sense that we're in dire straits -- a sentiment that rarely redounds to the benefit of the incumbent party.

So I do think that Democrats need to press that sense of disorder -- not randomly or haphazardly, but intelligently and judiciously (and yes, I recognize the paradox of promoting strategic, well-calibrated "disorder"). You want to encourage voters to associate the Trump reign with thoughts like "things are falling apart," "I'm afraid to go downtown because of the men Trump sent there," "is my job going away?", "things feel very unstable," and "I'm sick of this ride and I want to get off."

The trick -- and it's not always an easy trick -- is to make it so that voters attributed these sentiments to Trump, not the Democrats resisting Trump. But one major advantage Democrats have is that they're the out-party, and voters (rightly or wrongly) tend to attribute anything going on in the world, good or bad, to the incumbent. And in the current moment, where Trump is doing so many things that seem to prompt those negative thoughts, Democrats have a lot of opportunities to entrench a very simple overarching message: All those fears, all those anxieties, all those bad thoughts you're having -- that's Trump.

The Supreme Court Gave Us This Hell

I know, I know. That title could apply to anything.

But what I'm actually referring to is the escalatory arms race currently occurring over partisan gerrymandering.

After Donald Trump demanded mid-decade gerrymanders from Texas and Missouri in order to shore up a faltering GOP majority, California Democrats have responded by seeking to undo anti-gerrymandering provisions in their state to provide a counter, and New York may follow. Things are growing increasingly chaotic -- Texas Democrats briefly fled the state to deny the legislature a quorum, and now that they're back they're being locked inside the legislative chambers like fairy tale princess kidnapped by an evil dragon.

While those demanding Democratic unilateral disarmament are the usual useful useless idiots, it's true that nobody who cares about democracy can think this is healthy. This entire spectacle is embarrassing, and toxic, and a mockery of the electoral system. And the hell we are in can be laid entirely at the Supreme Court's feet, due to its abominable Rucho decision. 

Rucho pretended that this was an issue that could be resolved at the state level. But the falsely-modest, actually-arrogant hand-washing of the obligation to nationally police partisan gerrymandering virtually guaranteed a national race to the bottom, and that's what we're seeing now. (Also, the fact that states had proven themselves capable of constructing anti-gerrymandering rules obviously falsified the Court's plaintive whine that there could be no judicially-manageable standard governing partisan gerrymandering). Rucho also acted as if it wasn't endorsing partisan gerrymandering; this, too, was clear bullshit at the time and clearer still after the Alexander decision canonized partisan gerrymandering into a constitutional entitlement. Rucho was indefensible on every level, and I fear even the latest contretemps only scratch the surface of the disastrous impact it will have on our basic democratic structure. The horror show we're seeing in Texas and Missouri and California and New York is the natural and inevitable result of the Supreme Court's reactionary arrogance. 

But just as Rucho's democratic hell was not inevitable, neither is unaccountable Supreme Court arrogance. In Kiryas Joel v. Grumet, the Supreme Court struck down the creation of a new school district that would have tracked the borders of a largely Satmar Hasidic Jewish community. The district was created because disabled children in that community needed special education services, and the Supreme Court in a prior case (Aguilar v. Felton) struck down the practice of sending public school teachers to parochial schools to provide those services. But the Court struck down this policy as well, concluding that creating a school district that tracked the borders of a single religious community represented an illegitimate form of religious favoritism.

Justice Kennedy wrote a concurring opinion in Kiryas Joel acknowledging that the state of New York was merely trying to "free the Satmar from a predicament into which we put them." It was the Supreme Court's Aguilar decision which forced the New York to go to the lengths it did to provide adequate educational services to the Satmar. The policy struck down in Aguilar would have been preferable to the "unfortunate course" of creating a bespoke school district for the Satmar, and so the moral Justice Kennedy drew was that Aguilar needed to be revisited. Three years later, the Court would come to agree, and Aguilar would be overturned.

Whatever one thinks about the particularities of Kiryas Joel and Aguilar, Justice Kennedy's writings always struck me as having an admirable modesty to them. No doubt the Aguilar court did not anticipate how its decision would unjustly burden small religious minorities. But once Justice Kennedy saw how the Court's decisions had led to an unjust and unworkable state of affairs, and were pushing religious communities into political arrangements that were even less desirable and justifiable than the one Aguilar sought to foreclose, he acknowledged the old precedents were due for reconsideration.

The states that wish to ban gerrymandering, but which now feel compelled to engage in grotesque counter gerrymanders just to blunt the impact of their more rapacious neighbors, are also in "a predicament which [the Supreme Court] put them." It did not have to be this way, it is this way because of an ill-advised and ill-considered Supreme Court decision. A more modest and self-reflective court would grasp the lesson. It would understand that Rucho was wrong when it was decided and it is wrong now, and it would correct its error.

But we don't have a modest Court. We have a massively, massively entitled Court; one for whom it is scarcely possible to imagine admitting to even the most obvious mistakes. So we seem stuck, in a hell of their devising. At least we can be clear on the blame.

The Audacity of Jeanine Pirro

Yesterday, the Washington Post published an editorial by Washington D.C.'s Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, where she demands the elimination of various D.C. laws that provide leniency to juvenile offenders under the guise of making D.C. "safe." These include the Youth Rehabilitation Act, which suspends mandatory minimums for many crimes when the defendant is under the age of 25, and the Incarceration Reduction Amendment and Second Look Amendment Acts, which lets persons imprisoned for crimes committed while under the age of 25 to petition for resentencing after 15 years of incarceration.

I've written before about my art collection, and in particular the story of Halim Flowers (whose work in large part prompted my interest). Flowers was the beneficiary of the laws Pirro is indicting here -- he committed his crime when he was sixteen, sentenced to life in prison, but was eventually released after serving 22 years (when he was nearly forty). If Jeanine Pirro had her way, he would still be locked up, and we would have lost the beauty he has created as a sacrifice to our misplaced pride -- the arrogance to know that these children can never and will never have anything to offer society, and that we lose nothing by keeping them caged forever. Halim Flowers is testament to why laws like this must exist. 

Whenever I think about laws insisting on the lifetime incarceration of juvenile offenders, I think: would we as a society really be better off if he was still warehoused? How much else in the way of beautiful art are we depriving ourselves of by locking away so much of our human potential? Or forget art -- or business, or writing, or anything else externalized by the outside world. How much love are we giving up? How many relationships are we stymying? How many families are we poisoning? Who does this help? Perhaps there are some criminals who are truly incorrigible (though most age out of violent criminality by forty or so), but for any individual kid it's hard to imagine knowing that with so much advance confidence that one will refuse to even let the child have a chance to become a different person. Our assumptions about which children are incorrigible criminals are very often wrong, and we should have the humility to allow ourselves to be proven wrong.

The retort, of course, is the put oneself in the shoes of the victims. It's of course hard for me to imagine  a world where my wife or my son was murdered -- my brain sort of does an emergency shut-off at the thought. My best guess is that it would turn me into a broken shell of a man, and nothing would resurrect me from my nightmarish hell. It would be too cheap to say that's freeing (why bother imposing any punishment if, either way, I'll still be a broken shell of man trapped in an inescapable nightmare?) -- I certainly think I'd want the wrongdoer to be held accountable in some fashion for what they've done. But I imagine (and again, this is only imagination) that eventually, all I'd want is to not have to think about the murderer again. I don't know if I could ever forgive him. But nor would I want to expend energy hating him. The gravest injustice someone could do to me, twenty years after the fact, would be to make the murderer my mental responsibility -- whether it's the responsibility to declare "he should he go free" or the responsibility to insist "he must stay locked up." Just let me pretend that I can forget. Is that too much to ask?

What Pirro is doing here is not to the benefit of the victims or their families. They deserve better than to be pulled into this debate. The people who want leniency will urge them to show forgiveness, the people who want punitiveness will lean on them to recount their trauma. Both demands are torturous. It is an injustice on top of an injustice that we ask this of them. Just leave them alone. They've suffered enough.

Impossible questions don't yield easy answers, and I don't pretend these answers are easy. But their very impossibility makes it more essential that D.C. residents be the ones to decide for themselves -- not an outsider commissar imposed on a subjugated population deprived of its democratic rights. Jeanine Pirro does not want what's best for D.C. residents. Jeanine Pirro does not care about D.C. residents. Crime in D.C. is in fact falling (and the most prominent recent incident of mass criminality in D.C. was of course orchestrated on Trump's behalf and the site of mass pardons by Trump to inaugurate his second term), but this was never actually about what's good for one of the American colonies anyway. Jeanine Pirro is literally inventing more misery so that she can inflict more misery on the world. What a despicable human being.

One other side note: When I clicked the link to open Pirro's column, I saw with bittersweet amusement a banner informing me that my Washington Post subscription will expire in one more day (I canceled in October following their Harris non-endorsement fiasco, but I had renewed last August for a year). Even now, this is a hard moment -- I grew up with the Post, I loved it dearly, and even now I know its reporters do some great journalism. But it is, in a way, helpful to get a reminder of the feckless, Vichy nihilism that the paper now embodies (the publication of this editorial wouldn't have offended me so much if the Post hadn't just announced new ideological limits on the opinion pieces it would run -- tell me, is Pirro's lock-up-the-kids crusade in the category of "personal liberties" or "free markets"?). No principles, no values, just crass accommodation of the worst people in power. Who could really miss a newspaper like that? For that, and that alone, I'm grateful to the Post for giving me a perfect sendoff as my time as a subscriber draws to a close.

The MAGA Embrace of the Nazi Aesthetic

A few days ago, the Department of Homeland Security put out an ad for new ICE recruits that featured a rather distinctive font:

It was yet another wink and nod to Nazism -- the original, German variety -- a move that was already present during Trump's campaign but has become increasingly ascendant since he entered office.

Consider a few examples:

• Another ICE ad running the slogan "Which Way, American Man?" -- a reference to the neo-Nazi tract "Which Way, Western Man?"
• E.J. Antoni, the Trump administration's new nominee to head the Bureau of Labor Standards -- an unqualified hack on any metric whose main appeal is clearly a willingness to manipulate the data in Trump's favor -- did an interview where he put a giant painting of the Nazi battleship Bismarck (sunk by the Allies in 1941) as his background.
• Fox commentator Greg Gutfield urging conservatives to "reclaim" the word "Nazi" ("with a hard 'I'"), leading his panel in such hilarious banter like "what up, my Nazi" and "Nazi please!".
• The Washington Times ran a story on army recruiting featuring a pink triangle (the Nazi symbol for gay men) with a "cancel" slash through it; Trump himself reposted it image and all.

I will pause here so we can all let out the collective "CAN YOU IMAGINE IF ILHAN OMAR!!!!" that's slowly been building to a breaking point.

Now, in all these cases, one can -- with extraordinary effort -- try to explain them away. The DHS' font is not technically called "the Nazi font" (it's "Fraktur"), it's just wildly popular with neo-Nazis (despite being banned by the Nazi Party in 1941!). We've already heard tale from Harlan Crowe about how enjoyment of Nazi paraphernalia doesn't make one a Nazi, just a history buff. Even Gutfield's gleeful embrace of being a "Nazi" was framed as "reclaiming" a slur.

That all of these excuses are dumb and unpersuasive is no barrier. Indeed, the foolishness is the point -- recall Sartre's famous discussion of how antisemites like to "play"; to force their adversaries to take seriously their frivolous assertions, then mock them for treating the frivolous as serious. The antisemites wink at their fellows with their choice of font, then say "dude, it's just a font!" with a smirk when the alarm is raised.

But also, it's easier to dismiss these cases when they're viewed in isolation. Put together, there's a pattern, and that pattern is a straightforward embrace of Nazi imagery as a key part of the MAGA aesthetic. This, of course, is coupled with the promotion of policy and personnel who also align with neo-Nazism and White Supremacism. And while the policies are obviously more concretely dangerous, the aesthetic choice is, in its way, more damning as evidence of who this administration is -- it cannot hide behind putatively neutral "policy debates", it serves no purpose other than to elevate bigots and haters. That's what it's designed to do, and that's what it is doing. The arrows all point in the same direction. And we should not hesitate to name what is happening.

UPDATE: JTA has two news stories on these events, one on Antoni's "Nazi warship" and one on antisemitic dogwhistles coming out of the Department of Homeland Security.

Is It Illegal To Call a Conservative Antisemitic?

The title of this post feels like an exasperated cry of a liberal media critic.  One can imagine looking at the contortions journalists go through to avoid calling, say, Thomas Massie antisemitic even after he distinguished "Zionism" from "US Patriotism" and introduced a "Dual Loyalty Disclosure Bill" and shouting "Goodness, is it illegal to call a conservative antisemitic or what?"

But alas, this isn't a purely rhetorical question. Eugene Volokh reported the other day that the ADL has apparently settled a defamation case filed by a conservative activist who claimed that the ADL defamed him by calling him an "extremist" and saying he peddles "antisemitic beliefs" (details of the settlement don't appear public, but apparently the ADL has removed references to this activist from its website).

The ADL's statements are quintessential examples of protected opinion, but the presiding judge, far-right extremist (can I say that?) Reed O'Connor, twisted the law into knots to let the claim survive a motion to dismiss. Presumably reading the writing on the wall (including the fact that any appeals would go up to the equally lawless Fifth Circuit), the ADL elected to settle.

There's been a lot of discussion recently about the ADL's right-ward pivot over the past few years -- Noah Shachtman had a fantastic deep dive in New York Magazine, and I too have offered some of my thoughts. But one aspect that can be overlooked is the incredible pressure the ADL came under in recent years to stop calling out conservative antisemitism -- paradoxically, precisely because ideas once contained to the far-right were increasingly being embraced by "mainstream" conservatives, which (in the eternal-victim mindset of the right) proved that the ADL was "biased".

For a long time, this pressure mostly came in the guise of working the refs -- just repeating, over and over and over again, that the ADL was left-wing and biased and in thrall to the Democratic Party and ever so unfair to the conservative movement. One would never know from these critics that the ADL was facing mounting criticism from liberals (not the left, which always has loathed the ADL, but mainstream progressives who've long made up the ADL's base) for being too solicitous towards conservatives. Still, their efforts yielded results. Fox News parrots right-wing talking points about the ADL promoting "Critical Race Theory"; the ADL quickly promises a "thorough review" to placate them. Elon Musk demands the ADL denounce the anti-apartheid chant "Kill the Boer" (as part of his promotion of the "White genocide" conspiracy); the ADL immediately obliges.

But now, the conservative efforts are pushing past propaganda and into concrete legal action to harass anyone who tries to police conservative antisemitism. The abuse of defamation law (surely, the irony is intentional) is one manifestation. The Twitter/X lawsuit against Media Matters for (accurately) reporting that hateful content was appearing on the platform next to advertiser content -- also a Reed O'Connor special -- is another. And at least adjacent to the point is the threat by the Attorney General of Missouri, Andrew Bailey, to investigate AI chatbots for daring to give Donald Trump low marks on antisemitism -- literally arguing it is a form of fraud and misrepresentation to not give Trump his flowers on the subject. Bailey insist that giving Trump a superior grade on antisemitism is a matter of "objective historical facts," even as less than a third of American Jews approve of Trump's handling of antisemitism and more than half think is personally antisemitic.

So the pressure is very, very real -- which is not at all to justify bending to it, but we need to pay heed to what is actually going on. The right is committed to abusing its legal power to decimate any organization -- absolutely including any Jewish organization -- which dares try to call out conservative antisemitism. This can and should be called what it is: a declaration of war on the Jewish community, and an existential threat to our security and well-being.

Finally, one cannot miss the parallel here between the ADL and the American university -- another institution whose reputation for liberalism was not entirely unearned but certainly greatly exaggerated.  There, as here, venerable American institutions were slammed over and over again with complaints about "bias". There, as here, that decades long rhetorical war has now crested into the most flagrant abuses of authoritarian power we've seen in my lifetime. And there, as here, the attempt to appease the fundamentally authoritarian with humiliating acts of supplication will not work -- they will never trust you, they will always demand more, and you will never be a better fascist than the true believers.

Things People Blame the Jews For, Volume LXXV: World War I

CNN reports:

TikTok this week removed an inflammatory anti-Israel video posted by celebrity beauty mogul and influencer Huda Kattan.

I've never been so happy to be unable to relate to any part of a sentence.

But what were the "anti-Israel" sentiments being expressed? 

Kattan, the founder and face of the billion-dollar brand Huda Beauty, shared a video to her more than 11 million followers on TikTok, accusing Israel of orchestrating World War I, World War II, the September 11 terrorist attacks and Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7.

[....]

“All of the conspiracy theories coming out and a lot of evidence behind them — that Israel has been behind World War I, World War II, September 11, October 7 — they allowed all of this stuff to happen. Is this crazy?” Kattan said on camera in her since-removed TikTok post, which included other unfounded claims about Israel. “Like, I had a feeling — I was like, ‘Are they behind every world war?’ Yes.”

Alert readers might immediately notice that some of these events occurred before Israel was established. Perhaps the more forgiving among us might overlook that problem for World War II -- Israel was founded only three years after its end, and it was such a Jewy war after all.

But World War I? That's a new one on me. We didn't even have the Balfour Declaration at the start of World War I! Roping Israel into it is really an extra special stretch.

I'd also be remiss if I didn't flag the interesting language "allowed all of this stuff to happen." What I like about this is that it takes for granted that Israel and the Jews control the entirety of global affairs, and is only mad at their non-interventionist mindset. I suppose once you've decided that Jews are like all-powerful gods, theodicy becomes our problem too.

All this talk of global Jewish domination does remind me of a thought I once had, though. Among all the people who think the Jews run the world, there must be somebody who thinks we're doing an okay job of it, right? I'm just imagining some guy in a Peoria bar, overhearing grousing about the damn Jews who run our society, slamming his beer down and yelling "Hey! They're trying their best, okay? I'd like to see you juggle running the banks and the media and the universities and Hollywood and the United Nations!"

And honestly? That guy would be right. It's hard managing all of that at once, and nobody gives us an iota of credit for it.

It's Not Easy Seeing Green

Okay, bear with me for a moment.

Red, yellow, blue -- those are the primary colors.

Red and yellow makes orange. And when I look at orange, it totally looks like a mixture of red and yellow.

Red and blue makes purple. And when I look at purple, it absolutely looks like a mixture of red and blue.

Blue and yellow makes green. And when I look at green -- I don't see blue or yellow at all. Green might as well be another primary color.

The thing is, I've thought this my whole life, to the point where it didn't occur to me that maybe not everyone thinks this. It was just obviously the case that green was distinct in being "independent" of its two bases. And it was literally last night that I had the epiphany that this might not be a universal perception.

So I asked my wife, and sure enough -- she didn't see it that way at all. Green to her looks like a mixture of blue and yellow, just as much as orange and purple look like mixtures of their two primaries.

Apparently, I've been nuts for my entire life. Unless the internet can now come to save me.

Israel is How Europe Can Stick It To Trump

Over the past few days, we've seen a spate of hitherto solid Israel allies in Europe announce they'll be recognizing the state of Palestine. France kicked things off, and it was swiftly followed by the UK and Canada. (There also has been an interesting wave of Arab states calling on Hamas to demilitarize and relinquish power).

I'm not going to comment here on the substance of the decision. Briefly, it is obvious that Palestinians deserve self-determination in a recognized state, and I'm unpersuaded by those who are arguing the move will backfire against the Palestinians. As for those who claim that recognition "rewards Hamas", I say that, if we are to think of this decision in those terms, it's better to see this as not as rewarding Hamas for 10/7, but as punishing Israel for its conduct after 10/7.

But that's not what I want to focus on here. Rather, I want to explore a different question: Why now? What made these countries take this step now?

Obviously, there is not one single answer to that. But in addition to some of the obvious factors -- increased sympathy for the Palestinian cause and increased frustration with Israeli intransigence chief among them -- I suggest an additional cause is that stepping out on Israel is a comparatively cheap and insulated way to symbolically repudiate Trump and Trumpism.

The Trump administration's pivot away from our traditional allies and alliances has been met with a justified mixture of alarm of fury from those we've abandoned. From escalating trade wars to threats of annexation, Trump has done unprecedented damage to America's global standing. People want to see their leaders punch back. But many of the most obvious avenues for retaliation come with substantial risks of their own. As idiotic and self-destructive as tariffs are for the United States, it remains the case that European countries must be careful and adroit in their own trade negotiations. Symbolism has its place there, but it can't be the whole story; missteps can exact real and serious tangible damage on one's own people.

But sticking it to Israel offers much of that same symbolic flouting of Trump, at a much lower risk. Most of the "damage" there, if there is any, will be externalized, not internalized. To the extent some countries might have been reluctant to step out against Israel for fear of alienating the United States, that ship has sailed; today these countries are looking for opportunities to signal they're standing up to the American madman. And while the Trump administration might make noises about retaliation, I think they're fighting on too many fronts for protecting Israel diplomatically to be a serious priority -- and that's even if one believes that Trump's Israel policy is based on sincere ideological commitment, which I don't. If one thinks Trump is just using "Israel" as an excuse to enact various forms of domestic repression, the ultimate disinterest can be doubled. In essence, Europe recognizing Palestine (a) looks increasingly justified and sensible given recent Israeli conduct and (b) offers an opportunity to be seen as standing up to Trump, in a context where tangible blowback is likely to be minimal. No wonder it's looking more attractive!

None of this should be seen as warranting any sympathy for Israel of course. They've chosen their course -- lashing themselves to the most extreme and vicious iteration of global rightwing ultranationalism -- and they have to live with the consequences. That's the risk of hitching your wagon entirely to a single powerful but widely loathed patron -- if daddy gets distracted, you're on your own and you've made yourself an awfully tempting target. Once again, when the right is done finding Israel useful, it will leave it in the wreckage.